Thursday, October 11, 2012

Put The Bunny Back In The Box

My thanks, per usual, to the fine Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight Blog for talking me off ledge today.  

The difference is that we, and HuffPost Pollster, are looking at the Electoral College and the popular vote in a holistic way. The evidence is ambiguous enough that it’s hard to know for sure, but the fact that Mr. Obama appears to hold a lead in the Electoral College is reason to be suspicious that Mr. Romney leads in the popular vote.

Two of the three hypothesis yield an Obama win. It’s something of a coincidence that our model now shows Mr. Obama with almost exactly a 2-in-3 chance of winning (as do Vegas betting lines), but it isn’t the worst way to think about the election.

Also, thank you Las Vegas!

Just wish I had read it yesterday when it was actually published.  Would have saved me 24 hours of tsuris. 

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Crazy Like A Narcoleptic Fox?

"Even I could beat fucking Romney!"

If the President loses this election after all the hard work of the GOP to allow him an easy path to what would have been an unprecedented reelection, then I think that pretty much sums up the Obama presidency in a nutshell. 

It scares the hell out of me that the GOP might get their grubby, greedy, gleeful hands back on the rudder, but I guess I should not be surprised that President O. let me down yet again. From the moment he took office, at which time he totally underestimated the size of the problem with the economy and how staggeringly difficult it would be for him to fix (especially with the guys who broke it advising him), to the way he underestimated and tried to silk glove his way with an opposition party that wanted to roast him alive, to the startlingly moronic statement he made during those first 100 days about being able to fix all the problems of the world or else "we are looking at a one-term proposition," straight on to his completely underestimating the war in Afghanistan (or perhaps embracing it---God only knows), you can draw a direct line through all of that to his completely underestimating what was required of him last night.

You really gotta work at it to be the most disappointing politician of my lifetime when my lifetime includes a dude who nearly got booted out of office for sticking a cigar up some little girl's hoo-hah.

Maybe he just doesn't want to be President anymore. Or maybe all the hate has got to him; maybe he's developed PTSD or some other mental problem. Or maybe he's really just a Republican in Dem's clothing and that finally caught up to him. I just don't know.

Whatever it was, those of you out there who don't seem to think this is serious must think the whole world is Barack's choir to preach to. But that wasn't a show for the choir last night. That was a show for the morons from Rock Ridge; the ones who still cannot seem to make up their minds despite the fact that it's the most black and white choice since someone held up an empty ice cream cone and asked you, "Chocolate or Feces?"

If any of you are taking comfort in 5 point poll cushions, then you're still living in 1948, and you probably didn't hear, by the way, that Dewey lost. This is the most mercurial electorate in history, and those same polls I now read some people touting as predicting an easy path in Ohio and Fla and PA and where-the-fuck-ever-else have been bouncing back and forth like tennis balls for the whole cycle now. When a guy can go from tied to a ten point lead and then back down to a three point lead in two weeks, that tells you that the electorate is dumb enough or uninformed enough, or both, that they might end up reeling into the voting booth and being surprised that Donald Trump's name isn't there for them to pick from ("When did he drop out?" they will numbly think to themselves before voting for the guy who swayed them last).

Yeah, 90 to 95 percent of the country have made up their minds, but it's the 5 to 10 percent who are left (and the 50% of them that will actually vote) who are going to decide this election, and those numskulls are still looking for something to make up their minds for them. Assuming they aren't waiting on the results of a reading of chicken guts, last night was an enormous step towards pushing them one way or the other. And for every one of those sheep who thought Romney was a dick during the debate, I have to believe there are 9 others who think Obama was in catatonic shock.

Why? Because I wouldn't vote for Romney if my balls were on fire and his sole campaign promise was to pay a private fire department to hose them down for me, and yet even I thought Obama was in catatonic shock. I may be disappointed in Obama so far but I support him to the hilt against the fruity oaty nut bars of the current day GOP, and yet even I thought Obama came off as completely incompetent and, worst of all, wholly out of touch.

Jon Lovitz is going to have a whole new skit to do soon if Obama doesn't wake the fuck up. Can anyone out there get Sam Jackson to talk to him?