My thanks, per usual, to the fine Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight Blog for talking me off ledge today.
The difference is that we, and HuffPost Pollster, are looking at the Electoral College and the popular vote in a holistic way. The evidence is ambiguous enough that it’s hard to know for sure, but the fact that Mr. Obama appears to hold a lead in the Electoral College is reason to be suspicious that Mr. Romney leads in the popular vote.
Two of the three hypothesis yield an Obama win. It’s something of a coincidence that our model now shows Mr. Obama with almost exactly a 2-in-3 chance of winning (as do Vegas betting lines), but it isn’t the worst way to think about the election.
Also, thank you Las Vegas!
Just wish I had read it yesterday when it was actually published. Would have saved me 24 hours of tsuris.